Germany’s Political Earthquake: Conservative Victory, Far-Right Surge, and the Battle for Europe’s Future...

A Historic Shift in German Politics

Germany has entered a new political era following its most consequential election in decades. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, secured a commanding victory, positioning him as the country’s next chancellor. However, the real shock came from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which surged into second place, marking a seismic shift in the nation’s political landscape.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which led the outgoing coalition government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered a crushing defeat, signaling widespread dissatisfaction with its leadership. Meanwhile, smaller parties like the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) saw declines, while The Left and the breakaway Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) made surprising gains.

Beyond Germany’s borders, this election carries profound implications for Europe’s future, transatlantic relations, and the global order. With coalition talks underway and mounting pressure on Merz to form a stable government, Germany’s role as the economic and political anchor of Europe is now in flux.

Election Results: Who Won, Who Lost, and What It Means

The final results of the German federal election revealed a dramatic realignment:

• CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats) - 28.6%
• AfD (Alternative for Germany) - 20.8%
• SPD (Social Democrats) - 16.4%
• Greens - 11.6%
• The Left - 8.8%
• FDP (Free Democrats) - 4.3% (fell below the parliamentary threshold)
• BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) - 4.97% (just short of the 5% threshold)

The CDU’s return to dominance marks a departure from the left-leaning coalitions that governed Germany over the past decade. However, its victory comes with complications. The rise of the far-right AfD means Merz must navigate a Bundestag more polarized than ever before.

AfD’s historic 20.8% share is the highest level of support for a far-right party in Germany since World War II. Its strength in eastern Germany, where it outperformed all other parties, underscores growing dissatisfaction with the mainstream political establishment.

For the SPD, the results were disastrous. A nearly 10% drop from 2021 underscores voter frustration over economic stagnation, high energy costs, and perceived government mismanagement. Outgoing Chancellor Scholz admitted to a “bitter defeat,” saying he takes full responsibility for the SPD’s collapse.

The Greens and FDP, junior partners in Scholz’s coalition, also struggled. The FDP’s failure to pass the 5% threshold means it will exit parliament, an extraordinary downfall for a party that played a key role in economic policy-making.

The Left, traditionally a marginal force, nearly doubled its previous vote share, particularly excelling in Berlin, where it won 19.9% of the vote. However, its splinter group, the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), narrowly missed parliamentary representation, highlighting the volatility on the left.

Friedrich Merz: The Next Chancellor of Germany?

Friedrich Merz, at 69, is now poised to take the chancellorship. A staunch conservative, he represents a shift from Angela Merkel’s centrist pragmatism to a more traditional right-wing approach.

Merz’s career has seen him alternate between politics and business. After a successful early political run, Merkel sidelined him, and he left parliament in 2009 for a lucrative private-sector career, including a stint at BlackRock Germany. He returned to politics in 2022, taking over the CDU leadership and vowing to restore Germany’s economic competitiveness.

His key priorities include:

• Economic Revival: Lowering corporate taxes, cutting bureaucracy, and promoting business-friendly policies to counter Germany’s slowing growth.
• Tougher Immigration Policies: A stricter stance on asylum and deportation, in contrast to Merkel’s more open immigration approach.
• European Defense and Independence from the U.S.: Pushing for a stronger European security policy, reducing reliance on American military support, and increasing Germany’s defense budget.
• Support for Ukraine: Unlike U.S. President Donald Trump’s wavering stance on Ukraine, Merz has pledged continued support for Kyiv, advocating for Germany’s leadership in European defense.

However, Merz faces a difficult coalition-building process. While the CDU/CSU won the most votes, it did not achieve an outright majority, requiring a coalition with other parties.

The AfD’s Surge: A Warning Sign for Europe?

AfD’s 20.8% victory is a landmark moment for German politics and Europe’s broader populist wave. Previously dismissed as a fringe movement, the party has now cemented itself as Germany’s second-largest force.

Led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, AfD capitalized on voter frustrations over immigration, economic insecurity, and distrust in traditional parties. Its biggest successes came in eastern Germany, where many feel left behind by Berlin’s political elite.

Despite its electoral success, AfD remains politically isolated. No major party is willing to form a coalition with it, leaving it without a clear path to governance. However, its influence is undeniable. CDU’s reliance on AfD votes for a recent immigration crackdown bill suggests the party’s growing leverage in German politics.

AfD’s rise reflects a broader trend in Europe, where nationalist and right-wing populist movements are gaining traction. With elections looming across the continent, including in France, Italy, and the European Parliament, Germany’s election may foreshadow a significant rightward shift in European politics.

Coalition Possibilities: What Happens Next?

Merz faces several options for forming a coalition:

1. CDU-SPD “Grand Coalition” (328 seats)

   • Historically stable but politically unpopular, especially after SPD’s devastating loss.
   • Would require major compromises from both sides.

2. CDU-Greens-Left Coalition

   • Unlikely due to ideological differences on taxation, immigration, and climate policies.
   • Would require CDU to soften its conservative agenda.

3. Minority Government

   • If coalition talks fail, Merz could attempt to govern with a CDU/CSU minority, relying on issue-based agreements with other parties.
   • Risky, as it could lead to political instability.

Merz has stated he hopes to finalize a coalition by Easter (April 20, 2025), but negotiations could drag on, given the complex political landscape.

International Reactions: What This Means for Europe and Beyond

The German election’s impact extends far beyond its borders:

• European Union: Germany remains a pillar of the EU, and Merz’s vision for a stronger European defense policy could redefine the bloc’s security strategy.
• Transatlantic Relations: Merz’s call for European independence from the U.S. aligns with growing European concerns over Trump’s unpredictability.
• Russia and Ukraine: Kyiv welcomes Merz’s victory, as he promises continued German military support. Moscow, however, sees an opportunity in Germany’s internal divisions.
• France and the UK: Both Paris and London have congratulated Merz, signaling a willingness to cooperate on defense and economic policy.

A New Political Era for Germany

Germany’s 2025 election represents a political realignment. The CDU’s victory restores conservative leadership, but the rise of the AfD signals a deeper transformation in German politics.

Friedrich Merz faces immense challenges—from forming a coalition to navigating economic woes and international tensions. His success or failure will not only shape Germany’s future but also influence the trajectory of European politics in an increasingly uncertain world.

As coalition talks continue, one thing is clear: Germany’s new government will be unlike any in recent history, and the consequences of this election will be felt for years to come.