Power Shifts and Struggles: The Looming Battle for Succession in Iran’s Religious and Political Future...

As Iran faces turbulent waters both domestically and on the world stage, one question increasingly looms over the Islamic Republic: Who will succeed Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader? This question, shrouded in secrecy and fraught with political intrigue, holds the potential to reshape the course of the nation. Khamenei has held supreme authority in Iran for over three decades, and his health concerns, coupled with mounting domestic and external pressures, have brought the issue of succession to the forefront of political discussions. The next Supreme Leader will inherit not just the reins of Iran’s political system, but the mantle of its religious authority—a power structure intricately woven together in the Islamic Republic.

The process of choosing a successor is not only a matter of identifying the right candidate; it is also a complex negotiation of competing interests within Iran's political and religious establishments. The intertwining of religious authority with political power makes the issue of succession uniquely fraught. As the country faces growing domestic discontent and external threats—particularly from Israel—understanding the dynamics behind this power struggle is key to anticipating the future trajectory of the Islamic Republic.

The Supreme Leader’s Role: More Than Just a Political Figure

The position of Supreme Leader in Iran is unlike any other political office in the world. The Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority over both the political and religious spheres of life in Iran. The role is that of a vali-ye faqih (Guardian Jurist), a religious authority who, according to Shia Islam, has the right to guide and govern the Muslim community. In practice, this means that the Supreme Leader holds significant sway over Iran’s government, military, judiciary, and key policy decisions.

What distinguishes this position is its theological underpinning. According to Shia tradition, the Supreme Leader must be a mujtahid, a cleric who has reached the highest level of scholarship and is capable of issuing independent religious rulings, or ijtihad. The ijtihad not only requires rigorous theological knowledge but also extensive training in Islamic jurisprudence, ethics, and philosophy. This requirement ensures that the leader is seen as divinely inspired and morally competent to lead the nation. However, achieving recognition as a mujtahid is not just about acquiring knowledge—it involves receiving endorsement from other prominent clerics and institutions.

The Challenge of Securing Religious Credentials

In theory, the criteria for selecting a Supreme Leader are grounded in religious tradition. The next leader must have the necessary qualifications, including the ability to issue religious rulings. However, the system is far from simple. Achieving the status of mujtahid is not solely based on academic accomplishments or the completion of formal coursework. Instead, it is a status bestowed by peer recognition—by other clerics who acknowledge the individual’s theological authority. A mujtahid must receive endorsement from high-ranking clerics, known as marja-e taqlid (sources of emulation), who are seen as the spiritual guides of the Shia community. Moreover, teaching the highest level of Shia jurisprudence, known as kharij, is considered a privilege reserved for mujtahids.

However, religious standing alone is often insufficient for leadership. The clerics in Iran’s political hierarchy also demand significant political and institutional support. When Ali Khamenei was selected as Supreme Leader in 1989, his religious qualifications were not deemed adequate by traditional standards. Despite this, his political acumen and the backing he received from key factions within the Islamic Republic ultimately allowed him to assume the position. This precedent shows that while religious credentials are important, political considerations often play a dominant role in the selection of the Supreme Leader.

The Role of the Assembly of Experts

The Assembly of Experts, a body consisting of 88 members (all of whom are mujtahids), is tasked with selecting the Supreme Leader. This Assembly plays a critical role in maintaining the political legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, as its members hold the power to nominate and approve the next leader. However, the process is not straightforward. The Assembly's members are elected through a system controlled by the Guardian Council, which can disqualify candidates it deems unsuitable. Furthermore, the Assembly itself is divided along ideological lines, and different factions often engage in intense competition for influence.

While the Assembly is supposed to choose a Supreme Leader based on religious qualifications and expertise, it is not immune to the pressures of political maneuvering. Many members of the Assembly are politically aligned with the ruling factions within the Iranian establishment, and as such, they may prioritize loyalty to the regime over religious scholarship. This has raised concerns that the Assembly may act in a politically motivated manner when choosing the next Supreme Leader.

Political Machinations: The Shadow of Mojtaba Khamenei

At the forefront of discussions about Khamenei’s successor is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Although the names of potential candidates for the Supreme Leader’s position remain secret, Mojtaba is widely seen as the most likely heir. His candidacy has been bolstered by years of behind-the-scenes influence, including his role in shaping key political decisions within Iran. For over two decades, Mojtaba has been deeply involved in the country’s political and religious spheres, gaining the trust of Khamenei and cementing his position as the regime’s political heir.

However, Mojtaba faces significant challenges in his bid for power. His religious credentials, while improving in recent years, remain controversial. Although some sources within the Qom seminaries have referred to him as "Ayatollah," he has not officially been recognized as a mujtahid, which would complicate his claim to the position of Supreme Leader. Furthermore, his public image has been marred by protests and calls for his exclusion from leadership, with many Iranian citizens and political factions viewing him as a symbol of dynastic rule. The outcry against his candidacy has been particularly vocal during times of unrest, with protesters chanting slogans demanding that Mojtaba never become the leader.

Despite these challenges, Mojtaba’s political network and his father’s apparent backing make him a formidable contender. In recent months, there have been signs that Khamenei is preparing his son for the role. Mojtaba’s suspension of his advanced jurisprudence lectures and the release of his first public video message suggest that he is preparing for a public leadership role, possibly as a way of laying the groundwork for his eventual succession.

Other Contenders: A Broader Range of Candidates

While Mojtaba Khamenei is often seen as the frontrunner, several other figures have also emerged as potential candidates. Among them is Alireza Arafi, a 65-year-old ayatollah who holds several key positions within the religious and political establishment. Arafi is a trusted confidant of Khamenei and has significant influence within Iran’s seminary system. His standing as a mujtahid is undisputed, and his close ties to the political elite make him a viable alternative to Mojtaba.

Hashem Hosseini-Bushehri, another leading cleric, is also viewed as a possible successor. At 67 years old, Hosseini-Bushehri has a wealth of experience and holds several influential roles, including the first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and Friday prayer leader in Qom. His credentials are strong, and his deep connections to the religious establishment position him as a key contender for the position of Supreme Leader.

On the other hand, figures like Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri, a prominent ultra-conservative cleric, are seen as more unlikely to succeed Khamenei. While Mirbagheri is a respected mujtahid and has a strong ideological following among hardliners, his lack of political influence and formal positions within the government diminish his chances of rising to the top.

External Threats and Internal Pressures

The process of selecting a new Supreme Leader is occurring in the context of increasing external and internal pressures. On the international front, tensions with Israel and the broader Middle East have raised fears about the potential for Khamenei’s assassination, leading to heightened security concerns. Khamenei himself has acknowledged these threats, urging the Assembly of Experts to be prepared for a rapid succession process in the event of his sudden demise.

Internally, Iran is grappling with a series of crises that threaten to destabilize the regime. Economic difficulties, including shortages of basic goods like electricity and fuel, have fueled public discontent. The regime’s handling of issues like the mandatory hijab law, internet censorship, and growing calls for political reform has only deepened frustration among Iranians. Protest movements, especially those driven by young people and women, have erupted in response to these issues, calling for greater freedoms and an end to authoritarian rule.

This internal unrest further complicates the leadership transition. The regime’s ability to maintain control over the population will depend not only on the choice of the next Supreme Leader but also on how the new leader addresses the mounting dissatisfaction with the government. While some may hope that a new leader will bring reforms, others fear that the transition will result in a continuation of the status quo, with little room for meaningful change.

A Moment of Uncertainty

The battle for succession in Iran is a high-stakes game that will shape the future of the Islamic Republic. As Khamenei’s health declines and external and internal challenges mount, the question of who will take the reins of power is more pressing than ever. While Mojtaba Khamenei remains the leading candidate, his lack of theological standing and the growing opposition to his leadership make his path to power uncertain. Other figures, such as Alireza Arafi and Hashem Hosseini-Bushehri, may also play pivotal roles in the future of Iran.

The next Supreme Leader will face not only the challenge of navigating the complex political and religious dynamics within Iran but also the task of responding to the demands of an increasingly restive population. How Iran chooses to handle its leadership transition will have far-reaching consequences, both for the nation’s internal stability and its place on the world stage. One thing is certain: the power struggle for succession is not just about who takes over—it’s about determining the future course of the Islamic Republic.