Analysis: Syria Remains in Turmoil as New Leadership Struggles to Establish Control Amidst Clashing Factions and Tensions...
Syria continues to be a region of severe unrest and instability as the newly established leadership—emerging from the ruins of the rebellion that overthrew former President Bashar al-Assad—finds itself grappling with a complex array of challenges in asserting authority over the fractured country. With various armed factions vying for influence, from Islamist groups to Kurdish forces, the new leadership faces a monumental task of consolidating power and maintaining some semblance of peace. Tensions have escalated across the country, with significant operations unfolding in Latakia, northern Syria, and eastern Deir Ezzor, further complicating an already volatile situation.
Renewed Efforts in Latakia: A Bid for Control
Latakia, located on Syria's northwest coast, has long been considered a stronghold of the Alawite minority, to which the Assad family belongs. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Latakia has become a flashpoint, with the newly-formed leadership launching operations to “restore security and stability.” According to a Syrian security source speaking to Al-Jazeera, the goal of these operations is to root out resistance and consolidate control in the region. The operation has involved sweeping security crackdowns, including the arrest of Assad loyalists and the seizure of weapons and ammunition.
The authorities have been particularly focused on those who have resisted the "reconciliation procedures" and the return of the government’s former opponents. A key move in this process has been the announcement that any individuals who failed to comply with the disarmament order would face legal action. These individuals, once loyal to the Assad regime, are now deemed “outlaws” by the new leadership, their continued presence considered a threat to civil peace. Among the arrests, members of Assad's militias have been detained, including several individuals linked to key figures within the former regime.
In addition to internal security operations, Syrian forces have set up a strategic checkpoint on the road leading to Hmeimim airbase, one of the primary Russian military installations in Syria. This move has sparked concerns of increased military tension, particularly as Russia claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom were plotting "terrorist attacks" on the airbase. Though the accusations were vague, the raised alert level at the base has underscored the fragile situation. The international dimension of the conflict remains ever-present, with both Russian and Western powers playing central roles in Syria’s ongoing crisis.
Clashes in Northern Syria: Kurdish vs. Turkish-Backed Forces
In northern Syria, the situation has remained tense as rival factions continue to clash. In particular, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition supported by Washington, have engaged in renewed skirmishes with the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed opposition faction. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported missile strikes by the SDF on SNA positions near the Tishrin Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge, strategically important areas situated along the front lines in eastern Aleppo. The SNA, in retaliation, launched heavy artillery strikes on Kurdish positions south of the town of Kobani, resulting in civilian casualties and significant property damage.
These clashes are part of the broader struggle for control over northern Syria, where a mixture of Kurdish forces, Islamist factions, and Turkish-backed rebels all seek influence. The Kurdish SDF, which has been a key player in the defeat of ISIS with the backing of the United States, has faced persistent attacks from Turkish forces, who view the Kurdish militias as a threat due to their links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group considered a terrorist organization by Ankara.
The ongoing conflict has also exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in northern Syria, with civilians frequently caught in the crossfire. The international community has struggled to provide sufficient aid to the millions of displaced people in the region, while negotiations for a lasting peace continue to falter.
The Situation in Deir Ezzor: Arrests and Militia Disputes
In the eastern region of Syria, the new leadership has also been forced to deal with challenges in Deir Ezzor, a strategically important province rich in oil resources. Following complaints from local residents, Syrian authorities carried out a series of arrests on the outskirts of Al-Mayadin, a town in the eastern countryside. The arrested individuals were reportedly affiliated with the Al-Abbas Brigade, an Iraqi militia aligned with Iran. This group was particularly active in the area before the fall of the Assad regime and has continued to maintain a presence in the region despite the leadership change.
The discovery of weapons and ammunition during these arrests highlights the ongoing influence of militias, many of which are tied to foreign powers, including Iran. These militias, particularly those backed by Tehran, have continued to operate autonomously in Syria, complicating the efforts of the new leadership to re-establish state control. The presence of these militias also undermines any efforts to consolidate national sovereignty, as their loyalties lie not with the new Syrian authorities but with their respective foreign sponsors.
The situation in Deir Ezzor exemplifies the broader issue Syria faces: a fractured political and military landscape in which local militias, foreign powers, and competing factions each vie for dominance. These groups are not simply remnants of the old Assad regime but active players in the ongoing power struggle that will define Syria’s future.
Hezbollah and Iranian Influence in the New Syria
A key player in Syria’s evolving leadership struggle is Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group supported by Iran. Hezbollah has maintained a significant presence in Syria throughout the conflict, especially in the wake of Assad's downfall, where it has supported Iranian-backed militias and provided strategic assistance to the new Syrian authorities. Hezbollah’s role in the region remains one of the most influential, and the group is acutely aware of the changing dynamics in Syria.
In recent months, Hezbollah has increased its efforts to ensure that Iran’s interests are preserved in the region, especially as new leadership in Syria navigates the treacherous waters of re-establishing control. The group has been instrumental in supporting the establishment of Iranian-backed militias and maintaining a buffer against U.S. and Israeli influence in the region. Hezbollah's backing has been critical in the struggle to preserve the existing power structures in Syria, as well as in securing Iran’s foothold in the Levant.
However, the new leadership in Syria must balance these external influences with the pressures of managing domestic concerns. As Hezbollah's military footprint grows, so too does the challenge for the leadership to assert its independence. If Hezbollah’s influence becomes too pronounced, it risks alienating key local factions and the international community, particularly the United States and its allies.
The Fragility of Syrian Authority
As Syria continues to grapple with its post-Assad reality, the country remains fraught with tensions. The new leadership, while emerging victorious in overthrowing the former regime, finds itself in a precarious position. It faces internal divisions, military resistance from local factions, and the challenge of asserting authority in a country torn apart by years of war.
The leadership's ability to consolidate power will depend largely on its ability to manage competing interests—both domestic and foreign. While the international community has played a pivotal role in the conflict, its involvement has only complicated Syria’s ability to return to any semblance of normalcy. In addition, the presence of foreign-backed militias, including Hezbollah and Iranian forces, continues to undermine efforts to build a unified, sovereign state.
With each new military operation and arrest, the new leadership in Syria continues to assert its authority, but the path to lasting stability remains uncertain. As various factions continue to challenge the new regime’s authority, Syria’s future remains unclear, with the potential for continued instability and conflict lingering on the horizon.
In this chaotic landscape, one thing remains clear: Syria's struggle is far from over. With leadership still in flux and the shadow of foreign influence looming large, the country remains mired in a struggle for power that may define its future for years to come.
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