Analysis: Iran's Growing Fear as Trump Looms on the Horizon...

As tensions simmer across the Middle East, one particular scenario is sending shockwaves through the region: the possibility of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House. For Iran, this prospect is causing significant alarm, with officials and their allies in the region bracing for potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy that could fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East. According to Middle East expert and Bar-Ilan University professor Mordechai Kedar, Iran and its allies are already in a state of panic, anticipating a stark change in U.S. policy towards the Islamic Republic under a second Trump administration.

Kedar's comments, made during an interview with ILTV News, reflect a growing concern that Iran’s strategic leverage and influence could be severely undermined if Trump were to reclaim the presidency. In the eyes of many in Tehran, Trump represents a direct threat to their power, particularly when it comes to the future of the Iran nuclear deal, regional military engagements, and U.S. support for Iran’s adversaries in the region.

Trump’s Unpredictability: A Source of Unease for Iran

For much of his first term, Donald Trump’s foreign policy was marked by unpredictability, unilateralism, and a willingness to challenge long-standing alliances and agreements. Perhaps no aspect of his presidency caused more friction with Iran than his decision to unilaterally withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018. The move, which was widely condemned by European allies and many in the international community, signaled a new era of U.S. confrontation with Tehran.

In Kedar's view, this momentous decision was only the beginning of the Trump administration's hardline approach to Iran. With Trump reportedly preparing for a return to office, the possibility of further escalations remains very real. For Iran, Trump's unpredictability is one of the most alarming factors. Under his leadership, the U.S. demonstrated a readiness to break with diplomatic norms, impose crushing sanctions, and even engage in military actions, all of which were designed to curb Iran’s influence in the region and curb its nuclear ambitions.

“Iran has good reason to be afraid,” Kedar says, emphasizing that Trump’s approach to Iran has always been one of uncompromising pressure. “The Iranians and all their supporters are in a panic because of what could happen in the United States.”

Reversing the JCPOA: The Nuclear Deal at the Center of Tensions

At the heart of Iran’s fear lies the future of the Iran nuclear deal, which was heralded as one of the signature achievements of the Obama administration. Under the deal, Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions, a deal that was intended to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, Trump’s decision to exit the agreement was a key moment in his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, and many analysts believe that his return to power could lead to a complete unraveling of any diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.

If Trump were to re-enter the White House, it is likely that he would take a hard stance on Iran, reimpose sanctions, and potentially accelerate the push for military action. His previous rhetoric and actions suggest that he may be inclined to support military strikes if Iran continues to defy international norms, particularly on nuclear issues. For Iranian leadership, this scenario is particularly troubling, as it would mean a return to the days of intense isolation and possible military escalation.

Kedar’s analysis suggests that the possibility of Trump reinstating his maximum pressure strategy is a real concern for Iran. With his previous policy of isolation, sanctions, and military threats against Tehran, it’s feared that Trump could further exacerbate Iran’s already precarious position in the region, leading to increased economic hardship and greater instability.

Regional Dynamics: Trump's Impact on Iran’s Allies

Beyond the nuclear issue, the potential return of Trump could significantly alter the broader regional dynamics. Under Trump, U.S. support for Iran’s adversaries—particularly in Israel and the Gulf states—was a key part of his administration’s strategy. The Abraham Accords, which led to normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states, were a direct result of Trump’s policies, and they represented a significant shift in regional alignments. For Iran, these agreements were seen as a direct challenge to its regional influence.

In particular, Israel's role in the region has been pivotal in countering Iran's ambitions. Trump’s unwavering support for Israeli security, combined with his administration’s stance against Iran, created a close partnership between Washington and Tel Aviv. This alliance is one of the cornerstones of the Middle East’s shifting alliances, and it remains a source of immense concern for Tehran.

The Iranian leadership has long viewed Israel as its primary regional rival, and the growing Israeli-Arab cooperation under Trump’s policies only deepened Iran’s sense of isolation. With Trump’s potential return, Iran fears that its position in the region could be further eroded, with more Arab states aligning against it and Israeli military actions against Iranian targets increasing.

For Tehran, this would mean a continued struggle to maintain influence in key countries such as Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, where Iranian-backed militias play a crucial role in shaping local politics. Should Trump return to power, his support for these regional alliances would likely embolden those opposed to Iranian expansionism, putting additional pressure on Tehran’s proxies and regional ambitions.

Trump's Appointments and Policy Shifts: A Harbinger of Change

One of the most unsettling aspects of Trump's potential return to power is his choice of appointments. His foreign policy team during his first term was notably hawkish, with individuals like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton advocating for aggressive stances on Iran. Should Trump return to the White House, many experts predict that similar figures would be reappointed, further heightening Iran’s anxiety.

Kedar points to the makeup of Trump’s administration as a crucial indicator of his future foreign policy approach. If Trump brings back key figures who were responsible for his hardline stance on Iran, such as Bolton and Pompeo, the implications for Iran could be dire. These officials were instrumental in orchestrating the maximum pressure campaign, and their reappointment would signal a return to a confrontational U.S. policy towards Tehran.

The prospect of Trump surrounding himself with advisors who view Iran as a primary threat adds another layer of unease for Iranian leaders. For them, the return of such hardliners could signal a return to policies of direct confrontation, including the potential for military action and greater support for Iranian opposition groups.

The Broader Geopolitical Consequences

Iran’s panic over Trump’s potential return is not just about the fate of the nuclear deal or the future of its regional alliances—it is about its place in the broader geopolitical landscape. The U.S. under Trump would likely seek to bolster its influence in the Middle East at the expense of Iranian power. Whether through military actions, economic sanctions, or diplomatic isolation, a second Trump administration could fundamentally reshape the region.

In the event of a Trump return, Iran would likely find itself facing greater isolation, increased pressure from the U.S. and its allies, and the risk of military conflict. The fear of such outcomes has already prompted Iranian officials to consider their next steps, with some analysts predicting that Tehran may attempt to recalibrate its strategy in anticipation of this shift in U.S. policy.

A Looming Storm Over the Middle East

As the world watches the political developments in the United States, Iran’s anxieties continue to grow. For Tehran, the prospect of a Trump return is more than just a political shift—it is an existential threat. With his unpredictable foreign policy and aggressive stance towards Iran, Trump represents a wildcard that could send the Middle East into further turmoil.

Whether through renewed economic sanctions, military threats, or strategic alliances against Iran, the Middle East stands on the brink of a potential new phase in U.S.-Iran relations. For now, as the countdown to January 20 continues, all eyes are on Washington and the seismic implications that Trump’s return could have on the region’s future stability.