Lebanon's Political and Economic Stalemate: Chances of meaningful recovery are slim as Mikati’s leadership struggles amid Hezbollah's influence...

Lebanon, once a vibrant beacon of culture and business in the Middle East, finds itself in the throes of one of the most severe crises in its history. With the country mired in economic ruin, political paralysis, and social unrest, Lebanon's wealthiest man, Najib Mikati, was appointed as caretaker Prime Minister in 2021, ostensibly to steer the country through its financial woes. Mikati, a billionaire businessman with substantial international connections, was seen as a potential savior capable of bringing order and stability to Lebanon. However, his longstanding alliances with Hezbollah and the Syrian regime have made his leadership more a symbol of Lebanon's entangled power dynamics than a beacon of change.

A Political Legacy Shaped by Controversy

Mikati's career in Lebanese politics has been marked by frequent returns to power during times of crisis. His first stint as Prime Minister came in 2005 following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The murder of Hariri, widely attributed to Hezbollah under the influence of the Syrian regime, plunged Lebanon into chaos, leading to Mikati's appointment as an interim leader. Mikati’s allegiance to the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, both of which hold significant sway over Lebanon’s political and military landscape, has shaped his political career. This association has earned him both local and international support, but it has also isolated him from key Western powers and regional Sunni Arab states who view Hezbollah as a destabilizing force.

In 2011, Mikati returned to power following the collapse of the government led by Saad Hariri, the son of Rafik Hariri, amidst rising tensions over Hezbollah’s growing influence in Lebanon. Despite his business acumen, Mikati's tenure as Prime Minister has been defined by economic collapse, soaring inflation, and widespread poverty. Under his leadership, the Lebanese pound lost more than 90% of its value, and inflation skyrocketed, pushing nearly 80% of Lebanon’s population below the poverty line. Daily power outages, fuel shortages, and a decaying public infrastructure have become the new normal in Lebanon, while Mikati has struggled to secure the international aid necessary to stabilize the country.

The Stranglehold of Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanon presents the primary obstacle to any meaningful political or economic reforms. The group, backed by Iran, operates with its own military, political, and social influence, often eclipsing the power of the state itself. This dynamic has left Mikati in a difficult position. While he has attempted to steer Lebanon towards recovery by reaching out to international organizations and Arab nations for financial aid, his ties to Hezbollah and the Syrian regime have made it difficult to gain the trust and support of key Western and Arab states. As long as Hezbollah remains a central political player, Lebanon’s chances of meaningful recovery are slim.

Dr. Ido Zelkovitz, head of Middle Eastern Studies at Jezreel Valley Academic College, argues that Mikati's political effectiveness is hampered by his indebtedness to Hezbollah. “As long as he is indebted to Hezbollah, he remains one of the obstacles to economic recovery,” Zelkovitz says. Hezbollah’s control over key sectors of Lebanon's military and political systems restricts any attempts at meaningful change, leaving Mikati stuck in a cycle of inaction.

Mikati’s disconnection from the realities of Lebanon’s economic decay has made him a figurehead more than a transformative leader. According to Dr. Eitan Ishai, a Middle Eastern Studies expert at Hebrew University, Mikati lacks the charisma and political will to confront Hezbollah’s entrenched power. "He is a band-aid on the problem, at best," Ishai explains. Mikati’s inability to make bold decisions or push back against Hezbollah’s influence underscores Lebanon’s ongoing political paralysis.

A Divided Leadership

Lebanon has not had a president since Michel Aoun’s resignation in October 2022, exacerbating the country's leadership crisis. The president is constitutionally required to be from Lebanon's Christian Maronite community, while the prime minister must come from the Sunni Muslim sector. This political arrangement has led to a deadlock, with no faction strong enough to impose its will or implement significant reforms. Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who represents Hezbollah’s interests, have effectively assumed leadership roles in the absence of a president, but their efforts to stabilize Lebanon have been undermined by internal divisions and external pressures.

Despite his long-standing alliance with Hezbollah, Mikati has occasionally diverged from the group’s positions, particularly on the issue of Iranian influence in Lebanon. In October 2023, Mikati expressed outrage over statements made by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who suggested that Tehran was willing to negotiate the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which was passed after the 2006 Lebanon War. Mikati called this an "outrageous intervention in Lebanese internal affairs," signaling his desire to maintain Lebanon’s sovereignty. However, Mikati’s ability to challenge Hezbollah's political and military dominance remains limited.

The Rise of Naim Qassem and Hezbollah’s Future

While Mikati struggles to assert control, Hezbollah has faced its own internal leadership changes. In the wake of the deaths of several high-ranking leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah’s deputies, Hezbollah or rather Iran, appointed Naim Qassem as the new secretary-general. Qassem’s leadership marks a shift toward a more hardline stance, positioning him as an uncompromising figure in the ongoing conflict with Israel. In his recent speeches, Qassem has emphasized Hezbollah’s readiness for a protracted war, bolstering the group’s morale and presenting itself as the defender of Lebanon’s sovereignty and resistance to Israeli occupation.

While Qassem’s rhetoric mirrors that of his predecessor, Nasrallah, his hardline posture is seen as a response to the existential threats Hezbollah faces, including the ongoing Israeli military campaigns and regional shifts in power dynamics. Qassem's approach also serves to assert his leadership capabilities and reaffirm Hezbollah's strategic alignment with Iran, despite the group's ongoing efforts to present itself as an independent force.

The Path Forward: Lebanon’s Political and Economic Impasse

Lebanon’s political and economic crises are inextricably linked to the influence of Hezbollah, a group that controls not only military operations but also much of Lebanon’s political decision-making. Mikati’s leadership, constrained by his alliances and the deep-rooted divisions within Lebanon’s sectarian system, has proven insufficient to address the country’s urgent needs. The caretaker prime minister’s failure to deliver meaningful change, combined with Hezbollah’s dominance, leaves Lebanon in a perilous position.

As the country grapples with political paralysis, economic collapse, and a leadership vacuum, the path forward for Lebanon remains unclear. Until Lebanon can resolve the impasse between Hezbollah and the state, and until Mikati or another leader can muster the political will to challenge Hezbollah's hegemony, Lebanon’s future will remain uncertain. For now, the status quo seems set to persist, with Lebanon caught in a web of political deadlock and economic ruin.