Lebanon's Fragile Ceasefire: Hezbollah's Declared Victory and a Nation Left in Ruins, or the End of Hezbollah’s Military Might?...

The recent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has left Lebanon in a state of profound devastation, marked by immense human, economic, and political losses. While Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, declared "victory" for his group, the cost of this war has been staggering, with more than 3,961 lives lost, thousands more injured, and widespread damage to infrastructure that will take years to rebuild. Despite the cessation of hostilities through a fragile ceasefire agreement, Lebanon’s path to recovery remains uncertain, overshadowed by Hezbollah’s influence and the lingering effects of its decades-long conflict with Israel.

Human and Economic Toll

The human cost of the conflict has been horrific. As of late November 2024, Lebanon's Ministry of Health reports nearly 4,000 deaths, with estimates of additional fatalities still buried under the rubble. Among the dead are at least 1,200 Hezbollah fighters, including key military leaders, alongside 3,000 civilians, highlighting the high civilian toll of this conflict. The devastation has left many areas in Lebanon unrecognizable, with more than 99,000 housing units either partially or completely destroyed, as detailed by the World Bank. This destruction, alongside the billions in agricultural losses, paints a grim picture of Lebanon’s struggle to recover.

On the Israeli side, while casualties have been lower, the damage is still significant. Over 70 Israeli soldiers were killed, and Israel estimates property damage exceeding $270 million. The environmental impact has also been severe, with thousands of acres of forests and nature reserves in northern Israel destroyed by the fighting. Despite these heavy costs, Hezbollah’s declaration of victory has raised questions about the group's real position—especially as their military capacity in southern Lebanon was significantly weakened by Israeli strikes.

The Political Fallout: Hezbollah’s Declining Influence

Politically, Hezbollah's role in Lebanon has shifted dramatically. For years, the group has acted as a powerful proxy for Iran in the region, with its military capabilities serving as a point of leverage in Hezbollah’s confrontations with Israel. However, the latest war has forced Hezbollah into a difficult position. While it retained some control over southern Lebanon, Hezbollah’s loss of political influence is becoming increasingly apparent. According to political analysts, including Khaled Hamade, Hezbollah has lost much of its regional support, particularly from Iran, which is now stepping back from direct intervention in Lebanese affairs.

The ceasefire agreement, while ending active combat, has imposed severe limitations on Hezbollah. For the first time in many years, the Lebanese Army, alongside international forces, is set to patrol and secure the area south of the Litani River—an area previously under Hezbollah’s military control. This shift in responsibility marks a decisive blow to Hezbollah’s standing as Lebanon’s de facto military power. With Hezbollah’s network of services and financial support mechanisms also crippled by the war, the group faces economic isolation as smuggling routes and illicit financial networks are cut off. Furthermore, the Lebanese Army’s expanding role in securing borders, alongside the international oversight of Hezbollah's activities, diminishes Hezbollah's ability to reassert itself as an independent military force.

The Fragility of the Ceasefire

Despite the formal ceasefire signed on November 26, 2024, the situation remains volatile. Ceasefire violations have been reported almost immediately, with ongoing Israeli airstrikes and drone operations against suspected Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. This continuation of hostilities underscores the fragility of the agreement. On the Lebanese side, Qassem’s rhetoric of “victory” masks the deeper truth: Hezbollah’s position is increasingly untenable, both militarily and politically.

While the ceasefire agreement calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from key areas and the strengthening of Lebanese army control, Hezbollah's complex relationships with Lebanese factions and its regional allies, particularly Iran, ensure that the ceasefire will likely be difficult to enforce in the long term. Hezbollah’s remaining fighters continue to engage in small-scale attacks, suggesting that full compliance with the agreement is unlikely in the immediate future.

The Road Ahead: A Strained Recovery

Lebanon’s recovery, both politically and economically, will hinge on how well the government can navigate the complex post-conflict landscape. With no functioning president since Michel Aoun’s departure in October 2022, Lebanon finds itself in a leadership vacuum. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the country’s wealthiest man, had initially been seen as a potential savior, using his business acumen and connections to attract foreign investment and rebuild Lebanon’s shattered infrastructure. However, Mikati’s deep ties to Hezbollah and his inability to challenge the group’s dominance have left him unable to effect any meaningful change.

Experts suggest that Lebanon’s recovery will require more than just the end of the fighting. It will require political reforms that address Hezbollah’s stranglehold on Lebanese governance and the restoration of trust in Lebanon’s institutions. Yet, with Hezbollah’s influence still pervasive, and Iran’s continuing involvement in regional affairs, Lebanon faces an uphill battle in securing its future.

While foreign intervention, notably from the United States and the United Nations, may bring temporary relief, Lebanon’s long-term recovery will depend on the country's ability to rebuild its infrastructure, regain political sovereignty, and forge a new political consensus that transcends sectarian divisions. The potential for lasting peace and prosperity in Lebanon remains uncertain, as the country continues to grapple with the devastating consequences of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict.