Money, Power, and Politics: The Economic Interests Behind France’s Mideast Policy Shift...

In recent months, the French government, under President Emmanuel Macron, has publicly shifted its stance on arms exports to Israel, calling for embargoes while seemingly supporting the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and positioning itself as a “protector” of Lebanon. While this could appear to be a principled stance in favor of humanitarian concerns and regional peace, the true motivations may lie within a complex web of economic interests and political alliances that bind France’s financial stability to key players in the Middle East. The maneuvering behind these policies sheds light on how economic imperatives often shape foreign policy decisions.

The Underlying Economic Struggles of France

France’s economy is currently under pressure, with national debt surpassing €3 trillion and a deficit that remains difficult to control despite austerity measures. With inflation pushing up the costs of essentials like energy and food, France’s budgetary constraints have heightened, further stretched by commitments to social welfare and healthcare programs. To address the crisis, Macron has put forward a 2024 budget plan aiming to shrink the deficit, though this remains under intense scrutiny from the European Union, which fears potential economic instability within the bloc.

In this context, France’s foreign policy actions take on a sharper focus, as the country looks beyond its borders for economic support. Macron’s government has found an ally in Qatar, which has recently pledged €10 billion in investments for France’s economy. But Qatar’s involvement is much deeper than a single injection of funds. The Gulf state has extensive economic interests in France, ranging from luxury hotels and department stores to substantial stakes in French fashion brands and ownership of Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), one of France’s most prominent football clubs. This influence has placed Qatar in a unique position to sway French policies, including foreign policy stances with implications in the Middle East.

Qatar’s Influence and the Israeli Embargo Call

France’s alignment with Qatar on Middle Eastern issues aligns with Qatar’s influence over Islamist groups in the region, including Hamas, with research showing Qatar provides substantial financial support for Hamas. As Qatar gains economic leverage in France, Macron’s foreign policy appears to mirror Qatar’s regional goals. The recent call for an arms embargo against Israel and France’s vocal support for UNIFIL in Lebanon indicate a subtle, calculated shift designed to align with Qatar’s interests.

Analysts from the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) have highlighted that Qatar’s financial influence could be impacting French policies. With the French Minister of Culture, Rachida Dati, reportedly having contacts with Qatari officials involved in corruption scandals, the question arises: How much is French foreign policy shaped by economic dependencies? In a post-Qatargate political landscape, the ties between French officials and Qatari interests have raised eyebrows, suggesting that the economic ties between the two nations have wider implications than previously considered.

France’s Neo-Colonial “Protectorate” Strategy in Lebanon

Macron has positioned himself as a guardian of Lebanon’s sovereignty, although his approach has raised questions about neo-colonial intentions. Following the 2020 Beirut explosion, Macron was swift to strike a rebuilding deal with the Lebanese government. Through a multibillion-euro contract awarded to Rodolphe Saadé’s CMA-CGM, a French maritime transport giant, Macron effectively tied French economic interests to Lebanon’s recovery efforts. However, the deal was facilitated through engagement with key Hezbollah figures, raising concerns that the economic aid channeled into Lebanon might inadvertently strengthen Hezbollah’s influence.

By positioning France as Lebanon’s “protector” while downplaying Hezbollah’s role, Macron has managed to extend France’s soft power influence in Lebanon. This has allowed France to wield considerable influence over Lebanese politics while maintaining a strategic distance from Israel. Additionally, Macron’s strategy to bolster relations with Iran, a known supporter of Hezbollah, appears to stem from a pragmatic need to secure French contracts and maintain influence in the region, rather than a principled stance on the Israeli-Lebanese conflict.

Expanding Influence in Armenia and the Southern Caucasus

Macron’s neo-colonial ambitions are not confined to Lebanon alone. In Armenia, France has capitalized on its historical ties to strengthen its presence. With Iran as a regional partner, France has provided Armenia with arms in a bid to stymie reconciliation with Azerbaijan, a close ally of Israel. France’s desire to extend influence in the Caucasus mirrors its tactics in Lebanon: leveraging economic interests and historical connections to secure strategic alliances, even if these alliances involve aligning with Tehran’s regional ambitions.

Macron’s support for Armenia, undercutting efforts for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, appears driven less by a genuine concern for Armenia’s welfare and more by a shared interest with Iran in curbing Israeli influence. By providing arms to Armenia, Macron positions France as a regional player, leveraging geopolitical dynamics to enhance its sway over an area critical to both European and Middle Eastern interests.

The Broader Picture: France’s Economic Imperatives and Foreign Policy

These interconnected moves show how economic dependence on allies like Qatar and strategic goals in regions like the Southern Caucasus guide France’s foreign policy. Facing economic strain at home, Macron’s government is increasingly turning to international partnerships, even if it means aligning with regimes that undermine France’s stated principles of liberty and democracy. By seeking influence in the Middle East and beyond, Macron is effectively placing France on a path that serves immediate financial needs while compromising long-standing international stances.

This approach has drawn criticism within France and abroad, with Macron’s detractors arguing that his foreign policy now operates under the influence of Qatar and Iran, both of whom have interests at odds with Western allies. As France deepens its partnerships in the Middle East, these policies might provide economic relief for a struggling economy. Yet, they also signal a recalibration of French alliances and a readiness to prioritize economic interests over longstanding commitments to Western allies and democratic values.

The Risks of Economic Dependency in Foreign Policy

As France’s economic partnerships deepen with Qatar, Tehran, and other powerful regional players, Macron’s policies are likely to continue shifting in response to these relationships. Macron’s approach underscores the complex ways in which economic dependencies influence foreign policy, sometimes placing nations in alliances that appear contradictory to their foundational values. For France, these alliances may offer temporary economic relief, but they come at a steep cost to its image as a Western ally and advocate for democratic principles.

In an era of interwoven economies and global power shifts, France’s Middle East policies highlight how economic pressures at home can reshape international alliances, leading to unexpected consequences for both domestic and foreign policy. For Macron, the balancing act continues, with France’s financial challenges adding urgency to every foreign policy decision — even if it places France at odds with its allies.