Caught in the Crossfire: Assad’s Balancing Act Between Iran and Israel Raises the Stakes in Syria...

In a region teetering on the edge, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is increasingly walking a tightrope, caught between the demands of long-standing ally Iran and the strategic pressure of neighboring Israel. Recent Israeli airstrikes in Iran, facilitated by disabling Syrian air defenses, have escalated tensions across the Middle East, revealing Assad’s increasingly precarious position. While Assad has historically aligned Syria with Iran, aiding in arms transfers to Hezbollah and maintaining a shared opposition to Israel, he now finds himself in a complex balancing act as his actions aim to navigate shifting alliances, survive internal challenges, and avoid retribution from powerful players on either side.

Assad’s Calculated Moves: Friend to Iran, Silent to Israel

Since the 1980s, Syria has been a central axis in Iran’s regional strategy, supporting Iran during the Iran-Iraq war and facilitating the flow of weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s partnership with Hezbollah has only deepened in recent years, with Hezbollah troops supporting Assad’s forces during Syria's civil war. This close alignment with Iran has helped secure Assad’s rule amid internal turmoil and geopolitical challenges, underscoring Syria’s role as an essential ally to Iran.

However, Assad’s current approach is confounding experts and political observers alike. While Iran expects Syrian support for its regional ambitions and for Hezbollah’s ongoing confrontation with Israel, Assad has refrained from responding aggressively to Israel’s routine strikes on Syrian infrastructure and Hezbollah-linked targets. Instead of escalating the conflict, Assad has adopted a strategy that can be best described as “cautious silence,” keeping Syrian troops from direct engagement near the Israeli border and quelling pro-Hezbollah demonstrations within Syria. These moves are likely aimed at avoiding the full brunt of Israeli military power, as well as protecting his regime from further destabilization.

Israeli Attacks and Regional Responses: A Careful Game of Pressure and Influence

Last week’s events saw Israel reportedly launching a wave of attacks on Iranian targets, with Israeli jets targeting air defense systems in Syria, thus securing a pathway for further strikes. According to the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, the attacks went beyond Syrian airspace, moving through Iraq—a move that sparked diplomatic backlash from Baghdad, which filed a complaint with the United Nations regarding the violation of its airspace. This operation is just the latest in Israel’s long-standing objective of curbing Iranian influence across the region.

Jordan and Saudi Arabia, eager to avoid entanglement in any Israeli-Iranian confrontation, quickly distanced themselves from the situation, declaring that Israeli jets had not flown through their territories. For the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, this denial reflects a cautious approach to Iran, rooted in a desire to avoid a conflict that could draw them into open confrontation. These countries, though concerned about Iran’s regional ambitions, seek to reassure Iran that they will not be complicit in Israeli military actions.

Iran’s Strategic Needs vs. Assad’s Fragile Position

Iran has long relied on Syria’s geographical proximity to supply Hezbollah with weaponry and other logistical support, a key component of its regional influence strategy. For Iran, Syria is a critical link to Hezbollah, providing strategic depth against Israel. But with Israel now striking Syrian infrastructure at border crossings and bridges essential for these supply routes, Assad faces pressure to keep these routes open even as he carefully navigates Israel’s stern warnings.

The pressure is mounting, as Iran’s leaders, already reeling from the recent Israeli airstrikes, might soon insist that Assad take a more active role in opposing Israel. “Syria stands between a rock and a hard place,” said Eva Koulouriotis, a Middle East expert, who highlights that Assad must balance the expectations of his Iranian allies while avoiding direct confrontation with Israel. This complex duality has led Assad to appease both sides subtly: appeasing Iran by enabling arms transfers to Hezbollah and assuaging Israel by keeping Syrian forces away from the Golan Heights and halting any anti-Israel demonstrations.

The High Price Paid by Syrian Citizens

In Assad’s delicate attempt to placate both Iran and Israel, the Syrian population bears a heavy burden. Continued violence, economic hardship, and displacement have left Syrians grappling with extreme poverty. Assad’s concessions, while strategic, have indirectly exacerbated the struggles of average Syrians. For instance, with Israel's targeted strikes disrupting supply lines and the influx of refugees pressuring scarce resources, prices for everyday goods have surged. Syrian citizens are effectively caught in a political crossfire, facing the dual threat of external conflict and internal scarcity.

“Even without the regime’s direct involvement in the military escalation in the region, the ordinary citizens are paying for it,” says Haid Haid, a research fellow at Chatham House. This suffering underscores the profound socio-economic toll that geopolitical maneuvering takes on everyday Syrians, whose survival now depends on Assad’s ability to navigate the complex expectations of Iran and Israel without plunging the country back into full-scale war.

What’s Next for Assad—and the Region?

As Israel and Iran continue their shadow war, Assad’s next moves could determine not only the future of his regime but also the balance of power across the Middle East. Should Iran demand that Syria adopt a more aggressive posture toward Israel, Assad’s careful neutrality may no longer be an option. Assad’s refusal to intervene directly against Israeli operations so far has reflected a priority for regime stability over loyalty, yet Iran’s recent setbacks might push Assad to make concessions he has previously avoided.

However, should Assad acquiesce to Iran’s demands to open a new front against Israel in the Golan Heights, he risks triggering Israeli retaliation that could destabilize his already fragile regime and reignite the civil conflict within Syria’s borders. In a region where alliances are fluid and power dynamics shift rapidly, Assad’s precarious balancing act underscores the ongoing volatility. The outcome of this delicate situation remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the entire Middle East is watching, as Assad’s decisions could reshape the region’s future.

In this charged atmosphere, where age-old alliances are being tested and survival hinges on diplomatic nuance, Assad’s careful maneuvering is more than just a strategy—it’s a high-stakes gamble with consequences that will reverberate far beyond Syria’s borders.