Between Scars and Strength: Israel and Lebanon’s Fragile Future...

As the world observes Israel and Lebanon’s enduring tension and uncertain future, regional dynamics are layered with years of war, political shifts, and now, an increasingly visible divide among Lebanese perspectives. The escalation following Hezbollah’s alignment with Hamas has thrown Lebanon into an intense, existential contemplation. Can Lebanon truly defend itself against Israel through armed resistance, or does its real strength lie in a peaceful “weakness,” as Lebanese journalist Raouf Kobeissi suggests?

For years, Hezbollah’s entanglement with Israel has shaped much of Lebanon’s military, economic, and social landscapes. While Hezbollah's staunch support from certain factions showcases a commitment to regional solidarity with Palestinian groups like Hamas, this stance has also deepened internal divisions and led to heavy repercussions. With Israel targeting Hezbollah positions, the civilian toll has spurred debates on whether resistance through violence or diplomacy is Lebanon’s most viable path forward.

A Country Divided, Yet Yearning for Unity

Kobeissi’s perspective resonates with a growing sentiment within Lebanon: a desire for independence from all foreign influences, including Israel, Iran, and Syria, that shape Lebanese policies and alliances. Many Lebanese citizens, weary of a sectarian system that fragments society and alienates communities, are concerned that Hezbollah’s actions put Lebanon in Israel’s crosshairs, leading to attacks on densely populated areas. The political vacuum further exacerbates this, leaving Lebanon’s most critical issues unaddressed and hindering efforts toward a unified stance.

The socio-economic crises from years of political instability, compounded by war, make Lebanon’s struggle visible on multiple fronts. The Lebanese pound has plummeted, tourism has waned, and regional conflicts have disrupted agriculture and infrastructure. Hezbollah’s leadership and its military engagement, bypassing formal government channels, create a dilemma: some Lebanese view these actions as essential to national defense, while others see them as a barrier to peace and stability.

Lebanon’s “Weakness” as Strength

Kobeissi invokes Lebanese politician Pierre Gemayel’s observation that Lebanon’s true resilience may stem from its perceived vulnerability. This concept aligns with the sentiment that Lebanon could fortify itself not by engaging in warfare but by prioritizing peaceful diplomacy, a neutral stance, and a vision for a reformed, secular government. As shown in historical cases like Luxembourg and Finland, small nations often gain international support by projecting unity and resilience through governance rather than military might.

Israel’s recent actions suggest that Lebanon, if perceived as a stable, peaceful nation, might attract a different kind of global attention—solidarity and support rather than indifference or condemnation. Hezbollah’s involvement in regional conflicts may be a deterrent rather than a shield, potentially alienating international support that could otherwise elevate Lebanon’s standing as a neutral state committed to development and peace.

The Human Cost and Path Forward

The casualty toll on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, exacerbated by periodic escalations, underscores the urgency of seeking diplomatic avenues. Gulf nations, acknowledging Lebanon’s vulnerable position, recently emphasized the need for diplomatic resolution and extended humanitarian aid to stabilize the region. However, until Lebanon’s government can assert itself as a unified entity distinct from Hezbollah’s influence, the cycle of instability may continue.

While some argue that Hezbollah disarming or merging with the Lebanese army could mitigate hostilities, the complexity of Lebanese politics, deeply intertwined with sectarian identities, makes this a challenging proposition. For Lebanon to wield influence without aggression, it may need to embrace the “weakness as strength” model: a strategic choice toward peace, improved governance, and diplomatic solidarity, bolstered by a populace committed to national unity over factionalism.

Regional Repercussions: Israel, Hezbollah, and the Arab World

Israel’s stance on Lebanon remains informed by security concerns over Hezbollah’s activities, which Israel views as a proxy for Iranian influence in the region. This complex relationship reverberates across the Arab world, with some Arab states supporting Lebanon’s autonomy and others remaining cautious due to Hezbollah’s involvement with Iran.

Arab-Iranian relations have historically been strained, contrasting with warmer Arab-Turkish ties. If Lebanon is to emerge as a neutral, peaceful state, there is an opportunity for Arab nations to support Lebanon’s development diplomatically, counterbalancing foreign influences and fostering internal stability.

Lebanon at a Crossroads

In Lebanon, a peace rooted in “weakness” may indeed be the country’s best defense against ongoing external threats. For this vision to materialize, however, Lebanon must address the urgent need for political reform, unite its factions under a cohesive national identity, and earnestly pursue an international reputation grounded in peace and resilience.

Only then, as Kobeissi hopes, might Lebanon stand not as a fragmented battleground but as a beacon of unity, strength, and sovereignty in an otherwise turbulent region.